Following a paper on the HPV-type specific long-term risk for cytological abnormalities (Elfstrom et al), the same group has now published the HPV-type specific long-term risk for CIN2 and CIN3.
In this paper they report substantial differences in risks for CIN2 and CIN3 between different oncogenic types. The highest cumulative incidence – after 14 years of follow-up, was recorded for HPV16/18/31/33 – with a cumulative incidence for CIN3+ of above 28%. The increased risk compared to HPV negative women was highest during the initial screening round – but remained high throughout follow-up. This implies that prolonged follow-up of women positive for certain HPV types may be warranted. The quantified differences of type-specific CIN risk will be useful for the development of risk-stratified screening algorithms.
Smelov V, Elfström KM, Johansson AL et al. Long-term HPV type-specific risks of high-grade cervical intraepithelial lesions: a 14-year follow-up of a randomized primary HPV screening trial. Int J Cancer. 2015 Mar 1;136(5):1171-80