Prof. Joakim Dillner (Karolinski Institute, Sweden)
Mathematical models will be built for both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. These models (‘dynamic transmission models’) can take into account risk factors or protective factors for HPV infection at the level of the individual (for example susceptibility to infections, immunity, sexual risk behaviour). Subsequently these models will be used to explore issues related to the progression from infection to (pre)cancer. The models will be built using data collected in previously conducted large trials evaluating screening modalities, HPV vaccination studies and population-based registries. In addition, the data collected in the context of the CoheaHr studies will be used in the models as well. In order to prepare country-specific estimates, the characteristics of the vaccination and screening programmes as they currently are will be integrated in the models.
The models will be used to provide estimates of the impact of different vaccination strategies and vaccination uptake on the levels of HPV infection and (pre)cancer in different European countries. This includes estimates of the effect of female-only vaccination compared to female and male vaccination; vaccination of different age groups; optimal screening strategies among vaccinated women or vaccination strategies among screened women; and health economic studies.